Thursday, May 2, 2013

This year's host city/port: Baltimore

For the first time ever, the 2013 TUFF Draft took place on board a cruise ship. Departing from Baltimore, this year's host city, all 18 TUFF owners and a select group of draftees went on board the Carnival Pride to take in all sorts of awesome sights and tropical experiences, and oh yeah, draft 64 players. What sort of hijinx could happen with all these guys on the "TUFF Boat"? Welcome aboard... it's the 2013 TUFF Draft Wrapup!

Throughout this Wrapup, you will see a few of the icons below. Here's what they mean:

Significant improvements on a TUFF team's starting lineup, could be cornerstone players for that team, and/or are great values for where they were taken.
High risk/high reward picks (e.g. players picked relatively high because of his upside, even in spite of character, medical and/or job situation concerns).
Either a reach and/or there was at least one player the team should have taken.
"Curveball" picks that may well be good ones, but leave me asking why a team didn't take a player I expected them to take or address another need on the roster (example from last year: Carolina passing up QB Nick Foles in Round 3).

1.01 Houston Tethered Swimmers - WR Tavon Austin

In the real world: Austin is an absolute burner that carries his speed throughout his routes while breaking into soft zones or when taking a short slant to the house with outstanding vertical ability. He could be the best receiver the Rams have had since the days of The Greatest Show on Turf (Bruce, Holt, Hakim). His draft stock shot up after the Scouting Combine (where he ran a 4.34 40). The one drawback with him is his small stature (5'8", 174 lb.--an inch taller and about the same weight as the author of this TUFF Draft Wrapup).
In the TUFF world: Houston set the bar for bad luck last year with 10 “coulda won” games; no other team had more than 5. But the Tethered Swimmers are poised to, er, swim tethered with a vengeance, with two of the top four picks this year (in addition to having the #1 pick for the second straight year, they acquired Dallas' 1.04 in a 2011 trade). They have plenty of talent at RB with Jamaal Charles, Stevan Ridley and Trent Richardson, so they traded up with Cleveland to make absolutely sure it addressed its biggest need, wide receiver. So sure, in fact, that they announced their selection of Austin three days in advance of the official start of the draft. Jeff Rathburn comes from the "Speed Kills" school of thought where drafting wide receivers is concerned, and Austin is proof once again of that.
Meanwhile, at the Port of Baltimore: Tyrann Mathieu is attempting to board the Carnival Pride, the ship on which the Draft Cruise will be held, stating that he is one of the top prospects invited to sit in the "Green Room" as they wait their turn to be drafted. He has been informed that only offensive players will be taken in this draft, at which point he retorted, "Honey Badger don't care. Honey Badger don't give a s***. Honey Badger just takes what he wants, and right now Honey Badger hears this cruise is going to just as badass as the one the Vikings had eight years ago."

1.02 Cleveland Steamers - RB Le'Veon Bell

In the real world: Bell is a big, bruising back who follows blocks well and will run—and sometimes hurdle—over tacklers. He's the reason why, last year, Edwin Baker left Michigan State a year early--no point spending your senior year at MSU knowing you would have to share carries with this dude. Bell split carries with Baker in 2010-11, but carried the load in a big way in 2012. Not a burner, but has quick feet and finishes forward. His 2011 stats are even more impressive when you consider that, in addition to the timeshare with Baker, he got those yards playing behind a subpar O-line. To kick off the 2012 season, he carried MSU to a victory over Boise State. After the Steelers drafted him, there were rumors that they were interested in trading Jonathan Dwyer.
In the TUFF world: In 2011, this team missed out on the playoffs by a narrow margin and looked like an up-and-coming team. But last year, the bottom fell out in a big way, as they had their worst year ever at 2-12. They dealt Maurice Jones-Drew to Green Bay and have selected Bell to replace him in hopes that he will supplant injury-prone Jonathan Stewart and disappointing Mikel Leshoure as their #2 back (assuming that they stick with Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch as their #1). You have to love Bell's job situation, with the potential for lots of carries on a team that employs a run-heavy offense. The question is, what will Cleveland do at their weakest position, which is wide receiver? They have Greg Jennings and Jeremy Maclin there, but precious little else.

1.03 Detroit Vipers - RB Giovani Bernard

In the real world: Bengals OC Jay Gruden doesn't plan to use Bernard, the first RB to go in this year's NFL Draft, as a workhorse back—at least not initially. But long-term, he should beat out plodding plowhorse BenJarvus Green-Ellis for carries in Bengals' backfield. He has been compared favorably with Thurman Thomas, Curtis Martin, and the MVP from Detroit's 2008 TUFF Bowl title season, DeAngelo Williams.
In the TUFF world: The three-time TUFF S*** Bowl champions entered this draft with a lot of question marks at running back: Is Williams going over the hill at age 30 (despite having fewer carries and receptions in his career than Chris Johnson)? How well will Reggie Bush flourish in his new offense? Can Mark Ingram and Shane Vereen step up their games? And what about Knowshon Moreno—how well will he bounce back from his latest knee injury? Besides, it's not often the Vipers land in the top three to take one of the top running backs--2013 marks only the third time in franchise history that they have picked in the top three. The rookie rankings on footballguys.com indicate that Bernard was a solid pick at 1.03 (a few people there even argue that Bernard is #1), and the average draft position tool on myfantasyleague.com puts him at #2.
Taking time: The Vipers spent more than three hours to make this pick... which is more than three hours longer than they spent on their previous three first-rounders combined. Last year, their selection of WR Justin Blackmon took all of 57 seconds. Two years ago, they took Ingram just 50 seconds after going on the clock. Three years ago, Mark Rabinowitz auto-picked QB Jimmy Clausen. Why the delay? Vipers owner/GM Mark Rabinowitz tried to trade down in Round 1, but didn't because he didn't get an offer he liked enough.

1.04 Houston Tethered Swimmers - RB Eddie Lacy

In the real world: Lacy replaced Trent Richardson as Alabama's lead RB in 2012. He left early, not only to take advantage of the relative thinness in this year's RB crop, but because T.J. Yeldon is the real deal. ESPN kept referring to Lacy as the best RB in the class based on the assessments and scores they received from their in-house player evaluation team, Scouts, Inc. (Lacy's Scouts, Inc. grade went from the low- to mid-70s to 89 earlier this year.) But he's been nursing a partially torn hammy since February (suffered during a mock Combine event at IMG), and a Pro Day workout that NFL Network's Bucky Brooks called "disappointing" led people to wonder about Lacy's conditioning and work ethic. Getting drafted by Packers was going to be a huge boon for Lacy's fantasy value, but then came Round 4 of the NFL Draft, when the Packers took another runner, Johnathan Franklin from UCLA. Also, after the draft, rumors spread that Lacy's big toe was fused, which Alabama's team doctor denies.
In the TUFF world: The Tethered Swimmers already have a solid RB trio with Jamaal Charles, Trent Richardson and Stevan Ridley. They had considered trading down, but when both Lacy and Montee Ball dropped to 1.04, Houston decided to keep and use the pick. Even with Charles, Richardson and Ridley in front of him, Lacy is guaranteed to start at least one game--because that trio of backs will all be off in Week 10.

1.05 Tennessee Taz Devils - RB Montee Ball

In the real world: Yes, he's a Wisconsin running back and recent Badger RBs (Ron "Double Wide" Dayne, P.J. Hill, John Clay) didn't accomplish much once they got to the NFL. Nevertheless, Charles Campbell of WalterFootball.com would argue that Ball is not necessarily another "product of the system": "Wisconsin jumped out to a big lead with Ball leading the way (in an October 22, 2011 game vs. Michigan State). When he got dinged up and went out of the game, the Spartans made a big comeback. Ball returned partway into the second half, and the Badgers' offense came alive... When he was out, the Wisconsin offense was flat, and the 'system' did not keep producing without its leading back."

In 2010, the 5'10", 217-lb. Ball scored 18 TDs despite being third on the team in rushing (behind John Clay and James White). The Broncos selected him in Round 2, which suggests that they view Ronnie Hillman as a change-of-pace back, not an every-down back; they may cut Willis McGahee or Knowshon Moreno as well. The main concern with Ball, as with Le'Veon Bell, is his heavy pre-NFL workload; in addition to having had 924 carries in college, he rushed over over 8,000 yards in high school.

In the TUFF world: Tennessee already addressed a very shaky QB situation in an April blockbuster trade, sending WR A.J. Green and its 2014 #1 pick to Green Bay for QB Aaron Rodgers and a 2014 second-rounder. In an ideal world, the 1.05 pick would have been a great position to take a wideout to replace Green. Thing is, their RB corps needed help, too. They have David Wilson (their #1 pick last year), but their other RBs are in part-time or backup gigs. Besides, at the time they made the pick, Tennessee still had the 2.04 and 2.05 picks that they could use on wideouts. Anyway, Ball's job situation with a suddenly potent Denver offense could help Tennessee go from an also-ran to a contender... provided that Ball can prove that he has tons of tread left on his tires and that he's not a product of Wisconsin's offensive line.

1.06 Baltimore Brown Clowns - WR Cordarrelle Patterson

In the real world: "Good hands, with explosiveness as a runner with the ball in his hands and as a leaper. Helps his QB. Ceiling of a very good No. 1." - Mel Kiper on his Nov. 28 Big Board. Pronounced core-DARE-uhl (he should get rid of that "e" at the end). Patterson came out of nowhere—oh, OK, Hutchinson Community College in Hutchinson, KS—to post 778 yards and 6 TD's as a junior at Tennessee. He's scary in two ways: Scary good because, as a football player, he's still got room for improvement; he didn't play football in high school until his junior year, meaning he's only played WR for a few years. Check out this highlight video, too. Scary bad in that there's a reason he played juco ball: He's not very smart (was academically ineligible coming out of high school; scored an 11 on the Wonderlic test). Matt Waldman speaks of Patterson's potential here. But ESPN's Christopher Harris says that until Patterson becomes more polished, his inexperience will trump his raw tools (which was the case with Stephen Hill and Brian Quick last year). The Minnesota Vikings drafted him in part to replace Percy Harvin, whom they traded to Seattle in the offseason.
In the TUFF world: Baltimore may have been hoping for one of the top four RBs in this year's draft--Bell, Bernard, Lacy, Ball--to fall to 1.06 because Michael Turner and Jahvid Best may both be done. But with all four off the board in quick succession, the Brown Clowns turn to taking the best available player. And in terms of upside, Patterson definitely fills that bill. Besides, if you're Baltimore, it's OK if he takes some time to become a more polished receiver--it's not like they're lacking in quality (they have Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald as the top two receivers) or depth (Greg Little, Emmanuel Sanders and Chris Givens fighting for the #3 WR spot).
Heard on the Draft Cruise:
Todd Hansen: "Only a problematic Purple WR has a Twitter username like this @ceeflashpee84"
Andy Lothschutz: "Looks like Baltimore snagged Todd's guy."
Tim Ozga: "WRs are getting old for the Clowns; it's time to reload."
Hansen: "It's a blessing in disguise that CeeFlashPee went before the Slewage were on the clock."
Jeff Zamzow: "I was kind of glad the Clowns took the Purple guy too. Made my pick easier. Here's to another crap WR wasted first round pick for the Outlaws. One of them has to work out someday, right?"

1.07 Arizona Outlaws - WR DeAndre Hopkins

In the real world: Last year, as a junior, Hopkins racked up 1,405 yards and 18 TD in 2012. He faced three SEC teams—Auburn, South Carolina and (in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl) LSU, and had 27 receptions for 353 yards and 4 TD, so it's not like he padded his stats against creampuffs. At 6'1”, 214 lb., he has been compared to Falcons WR Roddy White (although White is faster) and also Reggie Wayne (who, like Hopkins, fell to near the end of Round 1 because he didn't have outstanding size or speed, but had a terrific career with the Colts). Another thing Hopkins has in common with Wayne: being drafted by a team that had a long-established veteran WR. He lands into a great job situation with the Texans, who have 10-year veteran Andre Johnson but not much else. Similar to how Wayne ultimately took the #1 receiver job on the Colts from Marvin Harrison, so could Hopkins do the same vs. Johnson (or at least be the 1B to Johnson's 1A).
In the TUFF world: Last year, the Outlaws ended their long-running quarterback nightmare by drafting Robert Griffin III. The next step for them was to shore up the WR corps, and Hopkins is a big step in that direction. Sidney Rice has been healthy in only one of the last three seasons, and Kenny Britt, for all his talent, has never even had an 800-yard season, let alone a 1,000-yarder. 'Zona didn't have much at WR besides those two to begin with.

1.08 San Diego Slewage - RB Johnathan Franklin

In the real world: Franklin rushed for 1,734 yards and 13 TDs in a newly-installed spread attack last year, but as a junior, he averaged 69.7 yards per game and lost six fumbles. So, which Franklin will we get in the NFL? Was he a product of Noel Mazzone's spread attack, or is he that darn good? Going into the NFL Draft, a number of draft pundits said Franklin was one of the best RBs available (for example, Sporting News magazine ranked him third behind only Eddie Lacy and Giovani Bernard). Drafted by the Green Bay Packers in Round 4, Franklin will do what he can to beat out Lacy.
In the TUFF world: The Slewage, perhaps ticked off about not being able to get Cordarrelle Patterson, decide to get the best available running back. And the Slewage could use help at RB. And as we all know, RBs are gold in TUFF. Question is, was Franklin really the best available back out there? I would have liked to have seen more consistent week-to-week performance from him (in each of the last two seasons, he had a number of games where he had less than 4 yards a carry; then again, I said something similar about Frank Gore eight years ago, and he turned out a hell of a lot better than I expected). San Diego also passed up at least 1 or 2 more talented wide receivers when they took Franklin, and they don't have much depth at that position beyond Percy Harvin, Jordy Nelson and Malcom Floyd.

1.09 Tampa Bay Meat Goats - RB Zac Stacy

In the real world: The Rams drafted Stacy in Round 5. Barring a free agent signing by the Rams, their RB corps looks like a messed up committee--Isaiah Pead, Stacy, Daryl Richardson and Terrance Ganaway. Stacy had back-to-back seasons of over 1,100 yards for Vanderbilt.
In the TUFF world: The Meat Goats had no pick in Round 2, and that may have played a part in taking Stacy to handcuff to their 2012 Round 1 pick, Isaiah Pead. They also have a continuing issue, that of who is backing up Tom Brady? The Goats thought Kevin Kolb would be the answer to that question a year ago, but he isn't; E.J. Manuel might have been (more on him later), and handcuffing Manuel to Kolb was also an option.

1.10 Detroit Vipers - WR Justin Hunter

In the real world: In 2010, Hunter wowed people with 415 yards and 7 TDs on just 16 receptions (he was third behind Denarius Moore and Da'Rick Rogers at the time). He tore his ACL in the third game of 2011, but made a full return last year. At 6'4", 205 lb., he reminds some people of Randy Moss. According to Todd McShay, he "will have the same kind of durability concerns as (Tennessee Titans WR Kenny) Britt, but he also has similar potential to be a downfield threat." The Titans took him in Round 2; they already have Britt, Kendall Wright and Nate Washington. However...

  • Britt becomes a free agent after this year, and the Titans may be getting sick and tired of his injuries and off-field issues.
  • Also, the Titans may cut or trade Nate Washington, their current #3 receiver; he reportedly has fallen out of favor with team management, not only because of his salary, but because he reportedly did a half-assed job during the final month of the 2012 season.
  • Finally, consider this: Comparing Hunter's college stats against Wright's, Hunter had a better yards per reception average than Wright, even though he didn't play against soft Big 12 defenses. It's conceivable that Hunter could overtake Wright to be the Titans' #1 receiver.
In the TUFF world: This pick originally belonged to the Minnesota Fats, but the Vipers acquired it from the Fats in exchange for RB DeAngelo Williams. Hunter joins Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams, Justin Blackmon and Rod Streater on a Detroit WR corps that is much deeper than it was at this time two years ago. This trade works very well for Detroit for the following reasons:
  • Detroit had no second-round pick (traded away last year); they would have used it on a WR like Aaron Dobson, Markus Wheaton, Robert Woods or Terrance Williams, so getting the 1.10 enabled them to address that need (with hindsight, they would have taken Woods at 2.03)
  • Hunter has a better mix of talent, size and speed than those guys;
  • Supposing Hunter turns out to be a hit, 12+ years of him > 2-3 years of DeLo;
  • And finally, how many times does anyone spend a draft pick on a player, have his services for seven years, and get a pick in the same round in return?

1.11 Green Bay Ground Hogs - WR Keenan Allen

In the real world: The last seven months have not been kind to Allen; he tore his PCL on October 27 and admitted to having a setback in his recovery before the Scouting Combine, then proceeded to run two 4.7 40's at his Pro Day in April. Before the injury, he was one of the top-rated WR prospects. His slow recovery led him to fall in the NFL Draft before the San Diego Chargers nabbed him in Round 3. At first glance, this looks like a crowded WR corps with Danario Alexander, Malcom Floyd, Vincent Brown, Eddie Royal and Robert Meachem. But don't let that crowd fool you. Alexander has undergone multiple knee surgeries and becomes a free agent in a year, free agent bust Meachem could get cut next year, Brown is coming off a broken ankle, and Royal is better suited for slot receiver duty anyway. There's even talk that Floyd could be the odd man out. ESPN's Bill Polian, who knows a thing or two about player evaluation from his years as the head honcho in the Colts' and Bills' front offices, sees Reggie Wayne in Allen.
In the TUFF world: In April, Green Bay, in need of help at WR, sent QB Aaron Rodgers to Tennessee for A.J. Green in a blockbuster trade. Allen adds depth to a revamped corps headed up by Green, Dwayne Bowe (acquired last year from Cleveland), Stevie Johnson (yet another trade acquisition, from Tennessee) and Brian Hartline. I give credit to Paul Rush for looking past Allen's fall in the NFL Draft and recognizing his talent, as noted by Matt Waldman over a year ago.

1.12 Cleveland Steamers - RB Christine Michael
(originally drafted by Pittsburgh)

In the real world: Stuck with this name (pronounced chris-tin) by his mother, he decided to keep it after hearing Johnny Cash's story of a boy named Sue, but he should have changed it anyway. Long story short, he has great talent but also has durability issues (broken right leg in 2010 and a torn left ACL in 2011). The Seattle Seahawks still took him in Round 2 despite those injuries (not to mention that they also have Robert Turbin).
In the TUFF world: When Pittsburgh made this pick, it had to have stung for the Cleveland Steamers, who were hoping to get Michael at 1.15 to handcuff to Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch. Pittsburgh took him at 1.12 because they didn't exactly have a lot of depth at RB themselves--they have D-Mac and CJ2K, but not much else. Cleveland traded the 1.15 and its second-round picks in 2014 and 2015 to the BIG PAPAS for Michael, getting insurance for their #1 RB as they set out to once again compete in TUFF's most competitive division.

1.13 Carolina Convicts - TE Tyler Eifert

In the real world: Converted from WR, Eifert considering going pro last year before deciding to stay at Notre Dame. He was the top tight end taken, as expected, but I was initially stunned that the Cincinnati Bengals took him, as they already have Jermaine Gresham at tight end. But maybe I shouldn't have been stunned. Gresham struggled with drops (10 last season) and run blocking, so Cincinnati must see Eifert as an upgrade at TE.
In the TUFF world: After their first playoff appearance in nine years, the Cons are in prime position to address one of their biggest remaining weaknesses: tight end. Going into the draft, all they had at the position were raw and unproven Jordan Cameron and free agent pickup Logan Paulsen; the latter only had value when Fred Davis suffered a season-ending injury last year. There was a chance that Eifert could fall this far, similar to how Gresham fell to 1.15 in 2010, and Brandon Pettigrew fell to 1.16 in 2009.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

1.14 Denver Devils - RB Marcus Lattimore

In the real world: Lattimore was a stud as a freshman in 2010, and I'm sure a lot of us thought at that time, "Here's the #1 pick in the 2013 TUFF Draft." But then s*** happened. He tore his left ACL in 2011. He suffered a second injury—this time to the right knee—last October 27, which is cause for concern on one hand, but on the other, Frank Gore came back from ACL tears to both his knees. That injury looked even more gruesome than the one Willis McGahee had in the Fiesta Bowl ten years ago (and which McGahee recovered from as well). Not only did he miss the rest of the 2012 season, he was advised to get a medical redshirt and miss 2013 as well; however, he decided to go pro instead, after speaking with Gore, McGahee and Eddie George. Drafted by San Francisco in Round 4, he could be heir apparent to Gore (but I could have sworn that LaMichael James was going to be the Niners' RB of the future).
In the TUFF world: The Denver Devils have been in the AFC Championship game in four of the last five seasons—and they might have gone to all five if it hadn't been for Peyton Manning's neck injury in 2011. But they entered this year's draft with one weakness: Not a lot of depth at running back beyond Adrian Peterson. Their #2 running back last year, Ahmad Bradshaw, has only recently recovered from a foot injury and is unsigned as of the time this Draft Wrapup was released. Three other backs on the Devils' roster at the time that they drafted Lattimore--Brandon Jacobs, Peyton Hillis and Kevin Smith--are all unsigned free agents as well. The Devils even wanted to trade up to get him, but in the end, they never had to.

1.15 Dallas Junglehawgs - RB Joseph Randle
(originally drafted by Pittsburgh)

In the real world: Scouts, Inc.'s report says not to expect much more than another RB who benefited from facing—sing it with me—soft Big 12 defenses: "Does not have much power and did not show ability to consistently churn out yards after contact. Will struggle to constantly break arm tackles." The Cowboys added him in Round 5 to provide crucial depth behind injury-prone DeMarco Murray.
In the TUFF world: The BIG PAPAS drafted him, again because they need depth at RB, then traded him to Dallas for WR Aaron Dobson (whom Dallas took at 1.16) and Dallas' #1 pick in 2015. So if you're keeping score, Pittsburgh has taken its 1.12 pick and turned it into Dobson, a future #1 and two future #2's. Not bad considering this year's draft is supposed to be one of the more shallow ones in TUFF history. A side note: Tampa Bay would have loved to have taken Randle to handcuff to Murray... but they had no Round 2 pick (traded for Kevin Kolb), and even if they hadn't traded it, it was ten picks lower than this one to begin with.