Wednesday, May 1, 2013

2.01 Dallas Junglehawgs - WR Terrance Williams

In the real world: Williams continued to produce for Baylor even after RG3 left, which is a good sign for his ability to produce in the NFL. Drafted by the Cowboys in Round 3, Williams may the their #3 wide receiver already, because all he has in front of him are Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. On top of that, Austin may get cut next year for salary cap reasons; Austin recently restructured his contract, but is still scheduled to make mucho dinero in 2014, 2015 and 2016.
In the TUFF world: Short-term, Williams will add depth behind the Junglehawgs' projected trio of Michael Crabtree, Danny Amendola and Denarius Moore. In the long run, he could pass Mohamed Sanu (Dallas' second-rounder last year) and disappointing Jonathan Baldwin (taken late in Round 1 by Dallas two years ago) on the Junglehawgs' depth chart.

That's two Dallas Cowboys that Mike Scott has taken. Williams is also a native of Dallas, so this is as much of a homer pick as its gets in the TUFF Draft.

2.02 Dallas Junglehawgs - QB E.J. Manuel

In the real world: The Buffalo Bills threw a curveball by taking EJ Manuel over Geno Smith, Ryan Nassib, and others at with the sixteenth overall pick in the NFL Draft. Later, their GM revealed that an unusual private workout, held during a thunderstorm in Jacksonville, played a role in the decision to select Manuel. The Bills also see Manuel as a Cam Newton clone.
In the TUFF world: The Houston Tethered Swimmers might have used this pick to take RB Knile Davis (to handcuff to Jamaal Charles), but then Dallas came calling with a 2014 first-rounder that they had acquired from Denver. The Junglehawgs needed help at QB, where Ryan Fitzpatrick has gone from potential stud starter to backup QB in just a year, and the only starting QB they had was Ryan Tannehill.

2.03 Pittsburgh BIG PAPAS - RB Knile Davis

In the real world: Davis emerged in 2010, overtaking Broderick Green, who at that time was a senior, to become Arkansas' every-down back. Like Marcus Lattimore, he looked at that time like a future #1 or #2 TUFF Draft selection. But he tore his knee in the summer of 2011 and missed that season. His Scouts, Inc. score was in free-fall over the past several months, as he didn't look like the same back in 2012 that he had been previous to the knee injury (3.4 yards per carry in 2012). Still, he put together a good Combine and the Chiefs picked him late in Round 3. I was surprised Houston didn't keep the 2.02 pick and use it to take Davis (as a Jamaal Charles handcuff). One thing Davis is working on: Cutting out the fumbles. 6.4% of Davis' college carries ended in fumbles; that's not quite as bad as the rate Steve Slaton had with the Texans in 2009, but more than one fumble every 20 carries isn't going to cut it in the NFL.
In the TUFF world: Pittsburgh acquired this pick from New Orleans even-up for Aaron Dobson (who ends up on his third different team in less than 24 hours). They needed depth at RB, which is why they drafted Michael at 1.12 and Randle at 1.15, only to make profitable trades with both picks. The pick itself had been traded three times; originally Detroit's, the Vipers had traded the pick last September to Green Bay, who later dealt it to New Orleans.

2.04 Tennessee Taz Devils - WR Markus Wheaton

In the real world: Wheaton was drafted by the Steelers, who saw Mike Wallace take his talents to South Beach in free agency, in Round 3 of the NFL Draft. Wheaton has a great opportunity in Pittsburgh, especially if Emmanuel Sanders doesn't get a long-term deal with the Steelers later this year and heads elsewhere a year from now.
In the TUFF world: Three years ago, the Taz had Wallace and Holmes at wide receiver, and not much else. They have since added Miles Austin and Demaryius Thomas, and Wheaton adds depth to this very good corps.

2.05 Tennessee Taz Devils - RB Andre Ellington

In the real world: Drafted by the Cardinals in Round 6; they had taken Stepfan Taylor in Round 5. But Ellington is generally considered to be the better back of those two rookies. Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com says that Ellington may be Arizona's most talented back from first day of minicamp (the competition is Rashard Mendenhall, who is only on a one-year contract; Ryan Williams, who has hardly had a career in the NFL due to season-ending injuries, and Taylor).
In the TUFF world: Ellington was sure to go in Round 2 based on his job situation, and four of Tennessee's other backs had ended up in job situations that were less desirable than they were a year ago (Shonn Greene, Kendall Hunter, Robert Turbin and LeGarrette Blount). Any of those four could be trade bait later this year. San Diego might have wanted Ellington to handcuff to Mendenhall and Williams, but oh, wait, they traded away their Round 2 pick.

2.06 Baltimore Brown Clowns - QB Geno Smith

In the real world: "Smith has the arm strength to make all the NFL throws, solid mechanics to get his feet set, and even in a spread offense he shows the ability to get through progressions. It's his composure behind that shaky line that stands out most, though." - Kevin Weidl of Scouts, Inc. in December 2011. Todd McShay compared Smith to Christian Ponder on two different occasions: "With Smith, I think he's still developing as a quarterback. He's a smart kid, he works unbelievably hard and he has all the intangibles you're looking for, but a little bit like Christian Ponder, he didn't always transfer that information on the field. Ponder would often lock in on his initial read, and I think there's a lot of the same questions about Smith." Later: "He's still a work in progress. Like Ponder, he's a bright player but sometimes doesn't process his reads quickly enough." Smith had a really high completion percentage, but he had more screen passes than other QB's and his yards per attempt average is also among the lowest among this year's rookie QBs for that reason. So long-range accuracy is a question mark at this time. 24 fumbles in 33 games—including 12 last year—are also cause for concern. So is this report, in which a league executive says, "He's tuned out because he thinks he's got it all down" and isn't willing to take instruction or listen to coaches. And this one, stating "diva" issues. Nevertheless, one thing is clear: the Mark Sanchez Era is over in New York.
In the TUFF world: Smith went from early Round 1 pick to Round 2 pick in the NFL Draft, and not surprisingly, the same thing happened in the TUFF Draft. But I like this pick by Baltimore--with two good veterans in Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler, they have time to wait for Smith to develop into something better than Christian Ponder. In a TUFF draft filled with trades up and down and in and out, the Brown Clowns have done great just standing pat and taking the best available player. At this point in the Draft, you can take those aforementioned reports about being a diva who won't take instruction with a grain of salt. And how often do starting QBs fall this far? Not very often.

2.07 Arizona Outlaws - RB Mike Gillislee

In the real world: The Dolphins drafted Gillislee out of Florida in Round 5; rumor has it that they are prepared to jettison the disappointing Daniel Thomas if Gillislee does well in training camp.
In the TUFF world: Late-round RBs continue to come off the board as Arizona looks to improve the depth they have beyond Matt Forte and Vick Ballard. The Baltimore Brown Clowns probably wanted Gillislee as a handcuff for Lamar Miller, but they opted for a better available player in QB Geno Smith at 2.06 and didn't have another pick in Round 2.
Logospeak: The Dolphins unveiled a new logo last month, and it looks more like something SeaWorld or a cruise line would use, not a football logo. I had a tweaked logo in mind, one that had the leaping dolphin rotated a bit using the same color scheme the team used in the 1970s. Which do you like better--the cruise line one, or one of the ones shown here (the one on the left has the sunburst stretched and skewed; on the other, the sunburst is left as it is)? Also, here's how I wanted the uniforms to look.

2.08 New Orleans Chocolate City - WR Josh Boyce

In the real world: The New England Patriots drafted him in Round 4. Earlier, in Round 2, they had taken another wideout, Aaron Dobson. Boyce missed rookie minicamp due to a broken bone in his foot (suffered at the Combine).
In the TUFF world: 24 picks into the draft, New Orleans finally got to pick--and they whiffed. Don't get me wrong, Boyce isn't much of a reach--he would have been a good pick later in Round 2. But Robert Woods and Stedman Bailey were on the board. Who in his right mind picks Boyce over Woods?

2.09 Arizona Outlaws - TE Travis Kelce

In the real world: The Chiefs selected him at the start of Round 3. At the time, their best tight end was injury-prone Tony Moeaki.
In the TUFF world: 'Zona addressed WR and RB earlier in this draft, and can now turn their attention to tight end. As it happens, the Outlaws drafted Moeaki in 2010, so they should look at Kelce as a better backup tight end for Jermichael Finley.

2.10 Minnesota Fats - WR Robert Woods
(later traded to Green Bay)

In the real world: The Buffalo Bills drafted Woods in Round 2 to complement Stevie Johnson. He hauled in 111 passes for 1,292 yards and 15 TDs as a soph in 2011; he didn't produce as well in '12 (76/846/11), although it's not clear if the decline was his fault or if it was because USC chose to feature Marqise Lee more. Even though Woods is expected to be the Bills' #2 wideout, they also drafted speedy Marquise Goodwin in Round 3, and don't forget their undrafted free agent grab, Da'Rick Rogers.
In the TUFF world: What a fantastic value pick by the Fats (incidentally, it's the first pick they made in this Draft). Woods went just seven picks after Justin Hunter in the NFL Draft; here, he went an entire round after Hunter. Woods went earlier than Aaron Dobson, Terrance Williams and Josh Boyce in the NFL Draft, too, so I figured he'd go late in Round 1 or early in Round 2. Say what you will about the recent history of USC wideouts not doing as well in the NFL, and talk about Woods, Goodwin and Rogers cancelling each other's fantasy value if you like, but those are not reasons to pass up Woods.

2.11 New Orleans Chocolate City - TE Zach Ertz

In the real world: In an ideal world, TUFF owners would like the best offensive players to go to teams that need them, instead of going into job situations that seem crappy. So a lot of owners didn't like it when Ertz went to the Eagles, who already have Brent Celek, instead of the New York Jets, who have... Jeff Cumberland? But Chip Kelly, the Eagles' new head coach, liked to use his tight ends while at Oregon, so maybe there's potential for Ertz, the consensus #2 TE in the NFL Draft, in Philly. Celek is signed through 2016. The question is, will Ertz replace Celek, or will Kelly use both tight ends more than Andy Reid did?
In the TUFF world: The Chocolate City had no backup for Brandon Pettigrew--as of the time this Draft Wrapup was published, Todd Heap was an unsigned, banged-up 33-year-old free agent--and got a good value considering where Ertz went in the NFL Draft. It could get a lot better if Kelly's new offense is as revolutionary as Celek says it will be.

2.12 Denver Devils - WR Da'Rick Rogers

In the real world: In 2011, Rogers (pronounced DAY-rick, not dah-RICK) became the Tennessee Volunteers' #1 wide receivers, but after multiple failed drug tests, he got kicked out of that program. Otherwise, he might have gone in Round 1. Rogers says that he has not had any failed drug tests since transferring to Tennessee Tech, but questions remain about his attitude and maturity. He signed with the Buffalo Bills as an undrafted free agent. One Bills scout, Tom Roth, compared Rogers to former Bills WR Eric Moulds. It's a very good job situation for Rogers, as the Bills have little else besides Stevie Johnson and draftees Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin.
In the TUFF world: This may be the first time that I am not surprised that an undrafted free agent goes in Round 2 of the TUFF Draft. Rogers has both the talent and the job situation to be worth a Round 2 pick. Based on average draft position results on myfantasyleague.com and rookie rankings on footballguys.com, late Round 2 is about where he was expected to go. As it happens, the Devils could use more depth at WR, where they have Danario Alexander, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, and 34-year-old Reggie Wayne. Factor in how shallow this draft is, and now you see why Rick Dailey does not get the yellow exclamation point that I give to designate risky picks. At the time they picked Rogers, their other WRs were unsigned free agents (Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, Ramses Barden).

2.13 Carolina Convicts - QB Matt Barkley

In the real world: Between 2009 and 2011, the 6'2" Barkley improved year-to-year in TD:INT ratio and completion percentage. But as with his predecessors, Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez, questions abound about whether he's the product of a great supporting cast. The Philadelphia Eagles traded up to get him at the start of Round 4; new Eagles head coach Chip Kelly believes in competition at every position and probably envisions a competition between Barkley and 2012 draftee Nick Foles after Michael Vick moves on. Either that, or the Eagles are going to develop him into a trade chip (something the Patriots have been trying to do with Ryan Mallett for two years now). It is not clear at this point how well Barkley will fit in Kelly's offensive system.
In the TUFF world: Handcuff picks at this point in the draft are generally a good idea (Carolina has Michael Vick, and I was critical of Jeff Hannan for passing on Nick Foles last year). As it happens, based on the rookie rankings I see on footballguys.com and the average draft position reports I've seen on myfantasyleague.com, Barkley should go around this spot anyway.

2.14 Green Bay Ground Hogs - WR/RB Denard Robinson

In the real world: At his best, "Shoelace" could change a game with his feet. But his accuracy as a passer, especially from long range, was terrible. Why Michigan didn't stick with Tate Forcier (and later, use Devin Gardner at QB instead of moving him to WR), I'll never know. But there are two questions that make his draft value shoot up: What if Robinson does well as a running back? (When his selection was announced at the NFL Draft, he was announced as a running back, not as a wide receiver.) And what if the Jacksonville Jaguars decide that Robinson can replace Maurice Jones-Drew as an every-down back? Remember, he rushed for over 4,100 yards and 42 touchdowns in four seasons at Michigan.
In the TUFF world: Green Bay, which acquired Jones-Drew in a trade with Cleveland two days before the TUFF Draft began, did extremely well to take Robinson, both for MJD handcuff purposes (short-term) and upside (long-term).
Logospeak, Part II: The Jaguars are the NFL's other team to have a new logo this year. Don't get me wrong, the logo the Jags have been using since their 1995 inception was starting to look dated. But with a huge part of the new logo's face being white, doesn't the new logo remind you of Huckle Cat from all those Richard Scarry children's books we had in preschool? That's why I may, from time to time, refer to the Jaguars as the Huckle Cats. I hate those two-toned helmets, too--it worked well for San Diego State, but doesn't work with J-ville.

2.15 Cleveland Steamers - RB Latavius Murray

In the real world: Murray is 6'3", 223 lb., and reportedly ran 4.38 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, and that size/speed combo must have been what enticed the Raiders to take him in Round 6, even though they already have Darren McFadden, Rashad Jennings and Taiwan Jones. The question about Murray involves the level of competition he played against. Overall, he averaged 5.7 yards a carry last year, but he didn't do so well in games against Tulsa and Ball State. A word of caution from former Cowboys GM Gil Brandt, now with NFL.com: "He does not play as fast as his 40 time." Another thing that may work against Murray: His height. Running backs tend to be shorter because shorter RBs tend to be harder to tackle (due to a lower center of gravity), and according to this scouting report, he runs too upright. The same scouting report also says he is a straight-line runner who loses momentum when he has to change direction, which mitigates that "wow" factor from his 40 time.
In the TUFF world: Hmmm, on one hand, that is terrific speed considering his weight. On the other, running backs weren't the whole reason the Steamers fell to 2-12 last year. Yes, Maurice Jones-Drew and Jonathan Stewart got hurt, and Mikel Leshoure was a disappointment, but Cleveland's starting wideouts were the least productive in the league (here's a screenshot of fantasy points scored by position for TUFF's teams after Week 13), and while many of this year's best wideouts have already been taken, there were still at least a few that would have made more sense than Murray, including at least one diamond in the rough.

2.16 Tennessee Taz Devils - RB Stepfan Taylor

In the real world: The Cardinals drafted Taylor out of Stanford in Round 5. He fell that far because he doesn't have very good straight-line speed (4.70 40 at the Combine; he improved slightly to 4.64 at Stanford's Pro Day). But he didn't get to be Stanford's all-time leading rusher by accident. Rob "Boomer" Rang of NFLDraftScout.com says, "Taylor has shown all of the traits necessary to be a bell-cow back in the NFL except straight-line speed. While the stopwatch says he can't play at the next level, one can't measure the 'little things' he does so well - such as his vision, balance, forward lean, soft hands as a receiver and toughness, including in pass protection."
In the TUFF world: Getting Ellington and Taylor in the same round, without having to trade up, is a huge coup for the Taz. (The green check mark is for the pair, not just Taylor. Ellington is considered by many to be the better back, but Taylor is a classic case of hedging one's bets.) Let's consider the other half of the Arizona Cardinals' RB quartet--Rashard Mendenhall is on a one-year "prove it" deal to show how healthy he is, and Williams has lost large parts of both his NFL seasons to injuries.